Elon Musk's X has been exploring the revival of Vine, the once-popular short-form video platform, with a new AI-powered twist. Will X successfully relaunch Vine by the end of 2025?

Market dates

• Market Period: From market publication to December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM UTC
• Resolution Time: December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC
• Resolution Deadline: January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC or before if the outcome is determined.

Yes/No Criteria

The market resolves to "Yes" if X launches a platform, app, or feature that:

• Functions somewhat similarly to the original Vine app
• Is publicly accessible
• Is officially branded as a "relaunch of Vine" by Elon Musk, X, or Vine co-founder Rus Yusupov
• Goes live before the Resolution Time

The market resolves to "No" if:

• No Vine relaunch meeting all the above criteria occurs before the Resolution Time
• X launches a video platform that is not officially branded as a "relaunch of Vine," or similar phrasing
• The platform launches, but is not broadly accessible to the public by the Resolution Time
• No official announcement of a Vine relaunch is made by Elon Musk, X, or Rus Yusupov by the Resolution Time

Resolution details:

• The outcome will be determined based on official announcements from the official X accounts of Elon Musk, X, and Rus Yusupov
• Reuters, Associated Press, or AFP News Agency will serve as secondary verification sources

The final determination will be made at the resolution time

Cancellation Conditions

This market will be canceled if:

• The launch status cannot be clearly determined by the resolution deadline
• X undergoes major organizational changes affecting the Vine project
• Significant platform changes make resolution criteria unclear or invalid

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.