Market Dates:

• Market Period: From market publication until August 15, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC.
• Market Close: August 15, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC.
• Resolution Time: Upon finalization of the July 31, 2026 IMF Portwatch transit-calls data for the Strait of Hormuz.

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz on July 31, 2026.

• Resolves to "Yes" for the bracket containing the finalized value.
• Resolves to "No" for all other brackets.
• If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
• Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
• Data must be finalized before it is used for resolution (a given date's figure is considered finalized once the next date's data point is published).
• If the July 31, 2026 data has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after it is released, this market will resolve using the data published up to that point. If the data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of July 31, 2026, this market will resolve using the most recent data published up to that point.
• In case of obvious data integrity issues (clerical or similar errors), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the data is first released, to allow for corrections.

Resolution Source:

• This market resolves based on IMF Portwatch data, specifically the transit-calls chart and downloadable files for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.

Cancellation Conditions:

• Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively.

If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancellation.