With recent tariff increases and Goldman Sachs raising recession probability to 35%, the US economy faces increased uncertainty in 2025. Will the United States enter a recession by year's end?

• Market Closing: December 31, 2025, at 11:59pm UTC
• Resolution Deadline: The outcome will be determined once either:
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes an official announcement by market closing.
  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Q4 2025 advance GDP estimate (if needed for resolution)

Yes/No Criteria

The market resolves to "Yes" if either:

• The NBER officially declares a recession occurring at any point in 2025, or
• The BEA reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025

Advance GDP estimates will be considered valid for resolution purposes. For example, if both Q1 and Q2 2025 show negative growth in their latest available estimates, the market resolves to "Yes."

The market resolves to "No" if neither condition is met by market's closing time.

Resolution

This market resolves based on:

• Official NBER recession announcements
• BEA's seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly US real GDP growth rates
• Official Quarterly GDP Estimates Reports

Cancellation Conditions

This market will be canceled if:

• The NBER or BEA significantly changes their methodology during the market period
• Official GDP data becomes unavailable
• Any circumstance renders resolution impossible based on the designated sources