On June 22, 2026, the first round of US-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue. When will the next formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks take place?

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From market publication until July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
• Market Close: July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
• Resolution Time: Upon official confirmation that the next round of talks has begun, or upon Market Close if it has not occurred.

Resolution Criteria:

• This market resolves based on the first date a new formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks begins, according to the outcome dates listed below.
• A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran acting in an official capacity and authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
• Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators or facilitators qualifies, provided senior representatives of both countries participate in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their governments; the representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
• Follow-on technical talks from the June 22, 2026 Switzerland round do not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings do not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level round.
• Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation do not count.
• The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings as described above) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present do not count.

Resolution Sources:

• Official information from the governments of the United States and Iran.
• A consensus of credible reporting.

Cancellation Conditions:

• Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively.
• The resolution sources are suspended, become unreliable, or fail to provide sufficient information to determine the outcome.

If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of their shares at cancellation.