Will the FED cut by 25bps in December? thumbnail

Will the FED cut by 25bps in December?

$195K
Dec 10, 2025
Yes 100% chance
Yes100.0%
No0.0%

Rules

Market Dates:

  • Market Period: From the publication date through December 10, 2025, at 7:00 PM UTC.
  • Market Close: December 10, 2025, at 7:00 PM UTC. before the December FOMC meeting starts.

The Market Period and Market Close might be adapted as soon as the next FOMC meeting is officially scheduled.

  • Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.

Yes / No Criteria:

  • Resolves to “Yes” if the FED cuts interest rates by exactly 25 basis points (0,25%).
  • Resolves to “No” if the FED does not cut interest rates by exactly 25 basis points.(i. e. if the FED keeps rates unchanged or changes them by a different amount).
  • This market will resolve based on the official FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 9-10, 2025.
  • An emergency rate lowering or hiking would also trigger a resolution if it occurs during the Market Period.

Cancelation (Invalidity) Conditions

  • The resolution source is suspended, becomes unreliable or experiences significant disruptions at resolution.
  • Any circumstance prevents reliable resolution.
  • The FED meeting scheduled for December 9-10, 2025 is canceled or postponed indefinitely

In the event of cancelation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancelation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.


Resolution Source
FED

Timeline

Market published
Nov 17, 2025, 7:09 pm UTC
Market closed
Dec 10, 2025, 6:00 pm UTC
Resolved
Yes
0/500

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Outcome
Yes