After maintaining steady rates through early 2025, the Federal Reserve faces increasing pressure to begin rate cuts. Will the Federal Reserve announce its first rate cut of 2025 before or during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for May 6-7?

Market dates

• Market Closing: May 5, 2025, at 11:59 PM EDT, before the FOMC meeting begins.
• Resolution Time: On or before May 8, 2025, at 11:59 PM EDT, if an official decision on rate cuts is announced.

Yes/No Criteria

• The market resolves to "Yes" if the Federal Reserve announces any reduction in the federal funds rate at any time up until May 8 at 11:59pm EDT (including during the scheduled FOMC meeting)
• The market resolves to "No" if the Federal Reserve maintains current rates or increases them throughout the entire market period

Resolution

The market will be resolved based on official Federal Reserve announcements, including but not limited to press releases, executive orders, or official statements from the administration.

Cancelation Conditions

The market will be canceled if:

• The FOMC meeting is postponed or canceled
• Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.