Will Santa deliver more than 8.25B gifts? thumbnail

Will Santa deliver more than 8.25B gifts?

$13K
Dec 24, 2025
No 100% chance
Yes0.0%
No100.0%

Rules

Market Dates:

  • Market Period: From the publication date until December 24, 2025 at 10:00 AM UTC.
  • Market Close: December 24, 2025 at 10:00 AM UTC, before Santa’s flight starts as scheduled.
  • Resolution Time: After the resolution source updates the data for the entirety of Santa’s flight, or earlier if the outcome is already determined.
  • Market Target: 8,250,000,000

Resolution Criteria:

  • Resolves “Yes” if the total gifts delivered by Santa are above the Market Target.
  • Resolves “No” if they are equal to or below the Market Target.

Resolution Details:

  • The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the NORAD Tracks Santa website.
  • If the data is not available by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM UTC, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If the page updates earlier with information that makes the result definitive, the market may resolve early.

Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:

  • The resolution source becomes unreliable.
  • Any other circumstance that makes this market impossible to resolve.

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their positions at the time of cancellation, which may result in a profit or a loss.


Resolution Source
NORAD

Timeline

Market published
Dec 19, 2025, 12:10 pm UTC
Market closed
Dec 24, 2025, 10:00 am UTC
Resolved
No
0/500

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Outcome
No