Rules / Description

Market dates

• Market Period: From market publication until September 17, 2025, at 2:00 PM ET
• Market Close: September 17, 2025, at 2:00 PM ET, 30 minutes before the scheduled FOMC press conference
• Resolution Time: September 17, 2025, at 2:30 PM ET when the FOMC press conference is scheduled to start.

Yes/No Criteria

• Resolves to "Yes" if Jerome Powell appears wearing a predominantly purple tie during any portion of the FOMC press conference
• Resolves to "No" if Jerome Powell appears wearing a tie of any other color

Resolution Details

For this market, a "purple tie" is defined as:

• A tie where the primary/dominant color is purple
• Includes solid purple or patterns (stripes, dots, etc.) where purple is clearly the dominant color
• Lavender and violet shades are considered purple
• Blue, burgundy, or magenta ties are NOT considered purple for this market
• For patterned ties, purple must be clearly the dominant color.

Resolution

The outcome will be determined based on the live video feed of the FOMC press conference as broadcast on the Federal Reserve's official YouTube channel or other official live news broadcasts. Screenshots and altered video footage will not be considered for resolution.

Cancellation Conditions

This market will be canceled if:

• The press conference is canceled or rescheduled
• Technical issues prevent clear video observation of Powell's attire
• Powell does not wear a tie or does not appear at the press conference
• The press conference format changes to audio-only or written format
• There is significant disagreement or uncertainty about the tie's color due to lighting conditions or video quality

In the event of cancelation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancelation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.