Recent tensions between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have reached a critical point, with Trump publicly criticizing Powell's monetary policy decisions and openly considering his removal.

Will Powell resign or be removed from his position as Fed Chair by end of May?

Market dates

• Market Closing: May 31, 2025, 11:59pm EDT
• Resolution Time: June 1, 2025, 11:59pm EDT or sooner as the outcome is determined.

Yes/No Criteria

• The market resolves to "Yes" if Powell is removed from his position, resigns, or steps down from his role as Fed Chair before market closes.
• Any form of departure from the role of Fed Chair (including firing, resignation, or stepping down) will result in a "Yes" resolution, regardless of the reason.
• An official announcement during the market period confirming Powell’s departure will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, even if the departure takes effect after the market closes.
• The market resolves to “No” if Powell remains Fed Chair through the end of the market period, or if no announcement or decision is made that can lead to his removal.

Resolution

• This market resolves based on Federal Reserve official channels (social channels included) regarding changes in Powell's position.

Cancellation Conditions

The market will be canceled if:

• The resolution sources provides unclear or contradictory information that cannot be confirmed before the market closes.

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.