Following Nigel Farage’s resignation, the Clacton by-election has become one of the UK’s most closely watched political contests. This market predicts which candidate will be officially declared elected as the next Member of Parliament for Clacton.

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date until June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET.
• Market Close: June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET.
• Resolution Time: Upon official confirmation of the winning candidate.

Resolution Criteria:

• This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared elected as the Member of Parliament for Clacton in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
  • Resolves to “Yes” for the candidate who is officially declared the winner.
  • Resolves to “No” for all other candidates.
• If a listed candidate withdraws, is disqualified, or otherwise does not appear on the final ballot before voting begins, that candidate’s outcome will resolve to “No”, unless they are nevertheless officially declared the winner.

Resolution Details:

• If the by-election is postponed before polls open, this market will remain open until the election is held.

Resolution Sources

• A consensus of credible reporting will be used to resolve this market.
• In case of ambiguity the market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by Tendring District Council and the UK Parliament.

Cancellation Conditions:

• The by-election is postponed beyond the Market Close date, or if no official winner has been declared by that time.
• Any circumstance that makes the outcome impossible to determine using the specified criteria.

If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancellation.