Recent polling data reported by the Toronto Star suggests Mark Carney’s Liberals have pulled ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives for the Federal General Election in Canada, fuelling speculation that Carney may take Canada’s top job. Will the Liberal Party, currently led by Mark Carney, win Canada’s 45th Federal General Election ?

Market Dates

• Market closing: April 28, 2025, at 11:00 am UTC, when the voting begins on election day.
• Resolution Time: The market will resolve once the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC.ca) calls the winner of Canada’s 45th Federal General Election.

Yes/No Criteria

• The market resolves to “Yes” if the Liberal Party, currently led by Mark Carney but regardless of whether he remains in the race and/or is appointed PM, wins the Canadian 45th Federal General Election.
• The market resolves to “No” if another political party wins the Canadian 45th Federal General Election.
• Resolution Deadline: The market will be resolved when the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC.ca) calls a winner.

Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions

This market will be canceled/voided if:

• The Canadian 45th Federal General Election is postponed beyond the market close date or canceled.

In case of cancellation, participants will be able to reclaim their stakes at the market value of their open position, which may result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of their outstanding shares at the time that the market is canceled.