Jerome Powell's position as Federal Reserve Chair has been under intense scrutiny. So much so that President Trump has penned a letter to fire him, but will he do it before the year ends?

Market dates

• Market Close: December 31, 2025, 11:59pm EDT
• Resolution Deadline: January 1, 2026, 11:59pm EDT or before if the outcome is determined.

Yes/No Criteria

• The market resolves to "Yes" if Powell is removed from his position, resigns, or steps down from his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve before Market Close
• Any form of departure from the role of Fed Chair (including firing, resignation, or stepping down) will result in a "Yes" resolution, regardless of the reason
• An official announcement during the market period confirming Powell’s departure will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, even if the departure takes effect after the market closes.
• The market resolves to “No” if Powell remains Fed Chair through the end of the market period, or if no announcement or decision is made that can lead to his removal

Resolution

• This market resolves based on Federal Reserve official channels (including its social channels) regarding changes in Powell's position

Cancellation Conditions

The market will be canceled if:

• The resolution sources provides unclear or contradictory information that cannot be confirmed before Market Close

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.