Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025, Iran's parliament began drafting legislation to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). With mounting tensions and threats of withdrawal, will Iran officially announce its departure from the treaty by end of August?

Market dates

• Market Period: From publication date until August 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM EDT
• Market Closing: August 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM EDT
• Resolution Deadline: September 1, 2025 at 11:59 PM EDT, or earlier if outcome is determined

Resolution Criteria

The market resolves to "Yes" if:

• Iran's government officially announces its withdrawal from the NPT
• Iran's Supreme Leader or President makes a formal declaration of withdrawal
• Iran submits official withdrawal documentation to the United Nations

The market resolves to "No" if:

• No withdrawal announcement is made during the market period
• Iran only threatens to withdraw but doesn't formally announce it
• Iran announces a review or reconsideration of its NPT membership without formal withdrawal

Resolution Sources

Resolution will be determined through the following hierarchy of sources:

• Primary Source:
  • The United Nations announcement (https://www.un.org/)
  • Reuters (www.reuters.com)
• Secondary Sources
  • Associated Press (www.ap.org); Al Jazeera (www.aljazeera.com)
• These sources will be used to verify and cross-reference reports
• A consensus among at least two of the three specified news sources will be required in case of conflicting reports
• Only official announcements or actions will be considered
• The announcement must specifically reference withdrawal from the NPT

Cancellation Conditions

The market will be canceled if:

• Major global events prevent reliable verification of Iran's actions
• Access to all specified news sources becomes impossible
• The NPT framework undergoes significant changes during the market period
• Reliable verification of Iran's official position becomes impossible

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.