Market Dates:

Market Period: From market publication until July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Market Close: July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Resolution Time: After Market Close, or earlier if a qualifying closure is confirmed.

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace that is not solely due to weather conditions by the listed date.

• A major closure includes a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iranian airspace, or a major Iranian airspace region.
• To qualify, the closure must apply generally across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region.
• Limited cancellations, delays, or narrow partial closures will not qualify. However, limited exceptions within a broader closure, such as pre-approved flights authorized by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority, will not prevent the market from resolving to “Yes”.
• A non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will also qualify:
  • Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA)
  • Mehrabad Airport (THR)
  • Mashhad International Airport (MHD)
  • Shiraz International Airport (SYZ)
  • Isfahan International Airport (IFN)

This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying major closure is initiated by the deadline.

Resolution Details:

• Qualifying examples include broad closures of Iranian airspace, such as Iran closing most airspace to flights except those with express government permission, or a broad closure of Iran’s western airspace.
• Non-qualifying examples include limited airspace notices for military drills near the Strait of Hormuz, VFR-only suspensions, isolated airport disruptions, airline-specific cancellations, delays, or flight restrictions imposed by airlines or foreign governments.
• Warnings, no-fly zones, or other restrictions not initiated by Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
• Airspace closures occurring solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.

Resolution Sources:

• The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Cancellation Conditions:

• The resolution sources experience major disruptions or become unreliable.
• Any circumstance arises that prevents verifying if the outcome has been met.
• Myriad Markets undergoes a significant technical or contract change requiring cancellation of active markets.

If cancelled, participants will be able to claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation.