OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (codenamed "Spud") launched in April 2026, folding in many of the memory and agentic features long rumored for GPT-6 — but the flagship successor itself has yet to receive an official name, architecture details, or release timeline. With speculation mounting around a second-half 2026 launch, when will GPT-6 make it out to the public?

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From market publication until September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
• Market Close: September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
• Resolution Time: Upon official confirmation that GPT-6 has been publicly released, or upon Market Close if it has not been released.

Resolution Criteria:

• This market resolves based on the first date GPT-6 becomes publicly accessible to the general public, according to the outcome dates listed below.
• A qualifying model must be identified by OpenAI as GPT-6, or explicitly confirmed by OpenAI to be the successor to GPT-5 (similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4).
• If OpenAI officially confirms before September 30, 2026 that GPT-6 has been cancelled, indefinitely delayed beyond the Market Period, or will not be released as a standalone model, this market will resolve "No" for all outcomes.

Qualifying Model Definition:

A model will qualify if:

• It is explicitly named "GPT-6" (e.g., GPT-6, GPT-6o, ChatGPT-6o), OR
• It is confirmed to be the successor to GPT-5 — similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4 — by:
  • OpenAI directly, or
  • A consensus of credible reporting.

The following do NOT qualify unless explicitly confirmed as the same model:

• GPT-5.5 (including any point releases, e.g., 5.5, 5.6)
• Any other GPT-5.x iteration

Public Accessibility Requirement:

For a "Yes" resolution, the qualifying model must be:

• Available to the general public, including:
  • Open beta access
  • Open waitlist or rolling signups
• Not restricted to private or closed beta access

The release must be:

• Clearly announced by OpenAI, and
• Accessible through official channels (e.g., OpenAI website or product interfaces).

If a qualifying model appears on official platforms:

• It will count as "publicly announced" only if it is actually accessible under the rules above.
• Labeling errors, placeholders, or inaccessible listings will not qualify.

Resolution Details:

• Resolution is based on the earliest official confirmation that GPT-6 became publicly accessible to the general public. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. All outcome dates refer to Eastern Time (ET).
• A model is considered publicly announced only if it is publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name on OpenAI's official website or product interfaces. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names that do not correspond to a publicly accessible model do not qualify.

Resolution Sources:

• Official announcements, product updates, API documentation, and status pages published by OpenAI will be used as the primary resolution sources.
• Secondary reporting from reputable technology news outlets may be used for verification purposes if necessary.

Cancellation Conditions:

• Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively.
• The resolution sources are suspended, become unreliable, or fail to provide sufficient information to determine the outcome.

If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of their shares at cancellation.