President Trump's relationship with China has been a significant focus of international politics. Will Trump make an official or unofficial visit to mainland China during 2025?

Market Dates

• Market Period: The market covers any visits to mainland China from market publish through to December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM EDT
• Market closing: December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM EDT

Resolution criteria:

• If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China during the market period, this market will resolve to "Yes”
• This market will resolve to "No" if U.S. President Donald Trump does NOT visit China during the market period

Resolution Details

• A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of mainland China
• Simply entering Chinese airspace (such as during a flight stopover or while en route to another destination) does not qualify as a visit for the purposes of this market. A positive resolution requires Trump to physically set foot on mainland Chinese soil.
• A visit to non-mainland China, including but not exclusive to Hong Kong and Taiwan, does not count for a “Yes” resolution

Resolution Sources:

• Primary Source: The White House official website
• Secondary Sources: Trump's verified social media accounts (e.g., twitter.com/POTUS) or confirmation from international media outlets such as Associated Press or Reuters

Cancellation Conditions:

• The visit's status cannot be definitively determined using the specified resolution sources
• Major geopolitical events make travel between the U.S. and China impossible
• Extraordinary circumstances prevent reliable verification of the outcome

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.