Market Dates:

Market Period: From the publication date until February 20, 2026, at 12:00 AM UTC.

Market Close: February 20, 2026, at 12:00 AM UTC.

Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after the results are published on the resolution source.

Resolution Criteria:

• Resolves to “Japan” if Japan’s final total medal count is greater than Italy’s.
• Resolves to “Italy” if Italy’s final total medal count is greater than Japan’s.

Resolution Details:

• This market resolves based on the official final total medal counts awarded to Japan and Italy at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games, as published by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) or its official results provider.
• Total medals include all gold, silver, and bronze medals officially awarded by the IOC.
• Medal reallocations resulting from disqualifications, appeals, or doping violations announced before the official closing of the Games will be included in the final counts.
• Tiebreakers:
  • If Japan and Italy finish with the same total medal count, the market resolves in favor of the nation that won more gold medals.
  • If both finish with the same total medal count and the same number of gold medals won, this market resolves in favor of the team that achieved more silver medals.
• The market resolves only once the IOC publishes the final medal table for the 2026 Winter Olympic Games.

Cancelation (Invalidity) Conditions:

• The 2026 Winter Olympic Games are canceled, postponed indefinitely, or not completed in a manner that produces an official final medal table.
• The IOC or its official statistical provider fails to publish definitive total medal counts for both Japan and Italy.
• Any circumstance makes it impossible to definitively determine which country won more total medals.
• Both nations have the exact same total medal count, gold medal count and silver medal count.
• The resolution source is suspended, becomes unreliable, or fails to provide an outcome.

If the market is canceled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancelation.