US Presidential Election Winner 2028 thumbnail

US Presidential Election Winner 2028

334M pts
Nov 7, 2028
JD Vance49.4%
Gavin Newsom12.8%
Donald Trump12.2%
Marco Rubio5.3%

Rules

Market Dates:

  • Market Period: From the publication date until November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC.
  • Market Close: November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC, before Election Day begins.
  • Resolution Deadline: By January 20, 2029, or earlier once the outcome is determined by the resolution sources.

Resolution Criteria:

  • This market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election.
  • If a Candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.”
  • The race will be resolved based on when all three resolution sources — the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC — call the election for the same candidate.
  • Once all three make the same call, the market immediately resolves to that candidate.

Resolution Details:

  • If, by January 20, 2029, the three resolution sources have not unanimously called the same winner, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated as President of the United States.
  • If any of the three sources retracts, reverses, or updates its projection before unanimity is reached, the market will wait for the next moment when all three agree.
  • Provisional or partial calls by only one or two outlets will not trigger resolution.

Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:

  • The presidential election is not completed, and no candidate is inaugurated.
  • All three resolution sources become unavailable or unreliable for an extended period.
  • A major structural change prevents identifying a single winner (e.g., contested inauguration with no sworn-in president).
  • Any circumstance that makes the outcome impossible to determine using the specified criteria.

In the event of cancellation, participant stakes will be refunded.


Resolution Source
AP News

Timeline

Market published
Feb 24, 2026, 12:35 pm UTC
Market closes
Nov 7, 2028, 1:00 pm UTC
Resolution
The outcome will be validated by the team within 24 hours of its occurrence.
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Select outcome
JD Vance
49.4%
Gavin Newsom
12.8%
Donald Trump
12.2%
Marco Rubio
5.3%
Alexandria O. Cortez
2%
Kamala Harris
1.9%
Josh Shapiro
1.2%
Pete Buttigieg
1%
Dwayne Johnson
0.9%
Andy Beshear
0.9%
Jon Ossoff
0.9%
Ro Khanna
0.8%
Tucker Carlson
0.6%
Greg Abbott
0.6%
Kim Kadashian
0.6%
Other
0.6%
Nikki Haley
0.6%
Elon Musk
0.6%
Donald Trump Jr
0.6%
JB Pritzker
0.5%
Ron DeSantis
0.5%
Zohran Mamdani
0.5%
Gretchen Whitmer
0.5%
LeBron James
0.5%
Tim Waltz
0.5%
James Talarico
0.5%
Thomas Massie
0.5%
Ivanka Trump
0.5%
Michelle Obama
0.5%
Jamie Dimon
0.5%
Stephen Smith
0.5%