JD Vance49.4%
Gavin Newsom12.8%
Donald Trump12.2%
Marco Rubio5.3%
Rules
Market Dates:
- Market Period: From the publication date until November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC.
- Market Close: November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC, before Election Day begins.
- Resolution Deadline: By January 20, 2029, or earlier once the outcome is determined by the resolution sources.
Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election.
- If a Candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.”
- The race will be resolved based on when all three resolution sources — the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC — call the election for the same candidate.
- Once all three make the same call, the market immediately resolves to that candidate.
Resolution Details:
- If, by January 20, 2029, the three resolution sources have not unanimously called the same winner, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated as President of the United States.
- If any of the three sources retracts, reverses, or updates its projection before unanimity is reached, the market will wait for the next moment when all three agree.
- Provisional or partial calls by only one or two outlets will not trigger resolution.
Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:
- The presidential election is not completed, and no candidate is inaugurated.
- All three resolution sources become unavailable or unreliable for an extended period.
- A major structural change prevents identifying a single winner (e.g., contested inauguration with no sworn-in president).
- Any circumstance that makes the outcome impossible to determine using the specified criteria.
In the event of cancellation, participant stakes will be refunded.
Timeline
Market published
Feb 24, 2026, 12:35 pm UTC
Market closes
Nov 7, 2028, 1:00 pm UTC
Resolution
The outcome will be validated by the team within 24 hours of its occurrence.
