After four rounds of "difficult" nuclear talks in Oman and Iran's recent declaration that uranium enrichment for civilian purposes is "non-negotiable," tensions remain high between the US and Iran. With more diplomatic discussions scheduled, will the two nations reach a nuclear deal by mid-June?

Market Dates

• Market Closing: The market closes on June 14, 2025, at 23:59 UTC
• Resolution Deadline: At market closing or sooner whenever the outcome is determined

Yes/No Criteria

Resolves to "Yes" if an official nuclear-related agreement between the United States and Iran is publicly announced during the Market Period

• The agreement must be officially announced by both parties
• Multilateral agreements that include both the US and Iran (such as JCPOA-style deals) qualify
• Informal announcements or preliminary agreements that don't constitute a finalized deal won't count

Resolves to "No" if:

• No official agreement is announced by both parties during the Market Period
• Only informal or preliminary agreements are announced
• Only one party announces an agreement without confirmation from the other
• Any announced agreement does not specifically address nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development

Resolution

Primary resolution will be based on White House official press releases, announcements, or statements; as well as based on official Iranian government channels including but not limited to Press TV, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), and Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA). Reuters, Associated Press, or AFP News Agency reports may be used as supplementary sources if needed.

Any announcements or reports published after the Resolution Deadline will not be considered, even if they contain relevant information about agreements made during the Market Period.

Cancellation Conditions

The market will be canceled if:

• The resolution sources are unavailable or compromised
• Extraordinary circumstances prevent reliable determination of the outcome
• Major geopolitical events fundamentally alter the nature of US-Iran relations

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.