Market Dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date to March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Market Close: March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Resolution Time: This market will be resolved after the Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.

Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves to “Yes” if:

• The United States and Iran both formally and publicly confirm that they have reached an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a mutually agreed, publicly announced halt in direct military engagement between the two countries.

• A valid “official ceasefire agreement” must include:

  1. Mutual agreement: Both governments must explicitly confirm that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
  2. Public confirmation: Statements must come from both:
  • Official US government communication channels
  • Official Iranian government communication channels
  1. Clarity of intent: The agreement must clearly state that military engagement will cease—either immediately or starting on a specific future date.
  2. Agreement timing: The agreement must be reached prior to Market Close. The market will still resolve towards “Yes” even if the ceasefire only takes effect after the resolution date.

This market resolves to “No” if the above listed qualifying conditions are not all met before Market Close.

• The following do NOT count as a ceasefire:
  1. Humanitarian pauses Temporary, limited, or local humanitarian halts.
  2. Operational or tactical pauses Pause in drone strikes, airstrikes, cyber operations, etc., that are not part of a formal ceasefire.
  3. Unilateral declarations Only one side declares a halt in operations.
  4. Informal / backchannel communications De-escalation without official announcement.
  5. Partial or region-limited ceasefires Applies only to specific fronts, regions, or types of combat.
  6. Political frameworks, peace deals, or negotiation roadmaps may also not count, as to qualify they have to explicitly include:
     1. mutually agreed, publicly confirmed halt to hostilities,
     2. With an effective or scheduled start date.

Resolution Sources:

• To confirm a US agreement to the ceasefire, the official Whitehouse website and official communications channells will be used as resolution source:
• To confirm Iran’s agreement to the ceasefire, the official website of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs will be used as a resolution source.
• Confirmation from major international news outlets — including Reuters, Associated Press and Al Jazeera English— with a single reliable confirmation from any one of them being sufficient for resolution, provided that no equally credible outlet publishes a direct contradiction (e.g., one outlet reporting that a ceasefire has been agreed while another explicitly reports that no such agreement exists).
• In case of such contradiction, the market will not resolve to “Yes” on the basis of news-outlet reporting alone unless the contradiction is resolved by Market Close.

Cancellation Conditions:

• All resolution sources become unavailable, unreliable, or experience significant disruptions for prolonged periods.
• Any circumstance prevents determining the outcome.

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.