On July 13, 2026, President Trump announced that the United States would reinstate its naval blockade on Iranian ships and customers, effective July 14, 2026, amid escalating US-Iran tensions. When will the US announce an end to this blockade?

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From market publication until August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
• Market Close: August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
• Resolution Time: Upon official confirmation that the blockade has ended, or upon Market Close if it has not occurred.

Resolution Criteria:

• This market resolves based on the first date the United States government publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, according to the outcome dates listed below (ET).
• A qualifying announcement must communicate that the US will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (e.g. fees). An announcement limited to a partial change — such as an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port — does not qualify.
• The announcement must be a declarative statement of the US government's present termination or suspension of the blockade (or a previously-unannounced prior termination), and must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to or describe an end without clearly communicating it do not qualify.
• The announcement must be made through official channels by an individual acting in an official capacity. Anonymous, unattributed, leaked, satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated statements do not qualify, nor do statements by persons not authorized to speak for the US government, third-party speculation, or descriptions of a prospective, contingent, or conditional end to the blockade.
• Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of whether the announcement is later reversed or the blockade actually ends in practice.

Resolution Source:

• Official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).

Cancellation Conditions:

• Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively.
• The resolution sources are suspended, become unreliable, or fail to provide sufficient information to determine the outcome.

If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of their shares at cancellation.