Context

Following heightened tensions in the Gulf, Donald Trump announced on April 12, 2026, that the United States would impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. This market tracks whether an official announcement confirming the end of that blockade is made before June.

Market Details:

• Market Period: From publication date through May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
• Market Close: May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
• Resolution Time: Immediately after Market Close or earlier if an outcome is confirmed.

Resolution Criteria:

• This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military publicly and officially announces that the United States has lifted, ended, or will end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on or before Market Close.
• Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Resolution Details:

• Qualifying statements must explicitly confirm that the blockade has been lifted, ended, or will end on a specified date.
• Statements using equivalent definitive language (e.g., clear confirmation that U.S. naval blockade activity has ceased or will cease) will qualify.
• Statements that merely imply changes (e.g., shipping resuming) without explicitly confirming the blockade’s end will not qualify.
• Informal comments, unnamed sources, leaks, or speculation do not qualify.
• Public statements made directly by Donald Trump — including verified social media posts (e.g., Truth Social) or videos — will qualify if they meet the criteria.

Important:

This market resolves solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the timeframe, regardless of actual enforcement or maritime activity in the region.

Resolution Sources:

• Official statements from the U.S. government, military, or verified representatives.
• Verified public communications from Donald Trump.
• Consensus reporting from credible media outlets.

Cancellation Conditions:

• Official sources become unavailable or unreliable during the Market Period.
• Conflicting or unverifiable information prevents a clear determination.
• Any circumstance that makes it impossible to confirm whether a qualifying announcement occurred.

If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which may result in a profit or a loss depending on market conditions.