Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 thumbnail

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

1.4B pts
Open until resolution
JD Vance67.4%
Marco Rubio8.4%
Donald Trump6.2%
Donald Trump Jr1.9%

Rules

Market Dates:

  • Market Period: From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined.
  • Market Close: This market remains open until a resolution is achieved.
  • Resolution Deadline: The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.

Resolution Criteria:

  • This market resolves to the individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for President of the United States.
  • If candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.”
  • Confirmation will rely on the Republican Party’s official communications, as well as reporting from:
    • Associated Press
    • Reuters
    • Fox News

Resolution Details:

  • Once the Republican National Committee (RNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately.
  • If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome.
  • Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.

Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:

  • The Republican Party does not select a nominee for the 2028 presidential election.
  • Official communication channels and all resolution sources become unavailable or unreliable.
  • Conflicting information makes it impossible to determine a single nominee.
  • Any scenario in which the party’s nomination process is voided or fundamentally altered, preventing a clear nominee.

In the event of cancellation, participant stakes will be refunded.


Resolution Source
AP News

Timeline

Market published
Feb 24, 2026, 2:33 pm UTC
Market closes
Only when an outcome is reached.
Resolution
The outcome will be validated by the team within 24 hours of its occurrence.
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Select outcome
JD Vance
67.4%
Marco Rubio
8.4%
Donald Trump
6.2%
Donald Trump Jr
1.9%
Ron DeSantis
1.1%
Ted Cruz
1%
Elon Musk
0.8%
Tucker Carlson
0.7%
Glenn Youngkin
0.7%
Josh Hawley
0.6%
Kristi Noem
0.6%
Steve Bannon
0.6%
Thomas Massie
0.5%
Matt Gaetz
0.5%
Kim Kardashian
0.5%
Robert Kennedy Jr
0.5%
Mike Pence
0.5%
Other
0.5%
Ivanka Trump
0.5%
Marjorie T. Green
0.5%
Tulsi Gabbard
0.5%
Greg Abbott
0.5%
Rand Paul
0.5%
Elise Stefanik
0.5%
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.5%
Erika Kirk
0.5%
Katie Britt
0.5%
John Thune
0.5%
Byron Donalds
0.5%
Sarah H. Sanders
0.5%
Tom Brady
0.5%
Nikki Haley
0.5%