JD Vance67.4%
Marco Rubio8.4%
Donald Trump6.2%
Donald Trump Jr1.9%
Rules
Market Dates:
- Market Period: From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined.
- Market Close: This market remains open until a resolution is achieved.
- Resolution Deadline: The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves to the individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for President of the United States.
- If candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.”
- Confirmation will rely on the Republican Party’s official communications, as well as reporting from:
- Associated Press
- Reuters
- Fox News
Resolution Details:
- Once the Republican National Committee (RNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately.
- If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome.
- Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.
Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:
- The Republican Party does not select a nominee for the 2028 presidential election.
- Official communication channels and all resolution sources become unavailable or unreliable.
- Conflicting information makes it impossible to determine a single nominee.
- Any scenario in which the party’s nomination process is voided or fundamentally altered, preventing a clear nominee.
In the event of cancellation, participant stakes will be refunded.
Timeline
Market published
Feb 24, 2026, 2:33 pm UTC
Market closes
Only when an outcome is reached.
Resolution
The outcome will be validated by the team within 24 hours of its occurrence.
