Following the passing of Pope Francis, the world will be watching the Sistine Chapel's chimney for the traditional white smoke signal that indicates a new Pope has been elected. Will we see white smoke (indicating a successful election) within the first two days of the Conclave?

Market Closing: May 19, 2025 at 11:59pm CEST

Resolution Time: The market may be resolved during the market period or after it has closed, whenever the outcome is conclusively determined.

Yes / No Criteria

• The market resolves to "Yes" if white smoke appears from the Sistine Chapel chimney at any point during the first two calendar days of the Conclave (from the beginning of the first Conclave day until 11:59pm CEST time of the second day), regardless of how many voting rounds take place during these two days.
• The market resolves to "No" if white smoke appears on day three or any subsequent day of the Conclave.

Resolution

The outcome will be determined based on official announcements from Vatican News, the Holy See's official news portal. In case of conflicting information, the final official Vatican announcement will take precedence.

Cancelation Conditions

The market will be canceled if:

• The conclave is postponed beyond the market's closing date
• The conclave process is substantially modified from the traditional format

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.