March Madness: Will a 12 Seed Upset a 5 Seed in the first-round 2026 NCAA Tournament? thumbnail

March Madness: Will a 12 Seed Upset a 5 Seed in the first-round 2026 NCAA Tournament?

$2.1K
Mar 19, 2026
Yes 100% chance
Yes100.0%
No0.0%

Rules

Market Dates:

Market Period: From the publication date until March 19, 2026, at 5:50 PM UTC

Market Close: March 19, 2026, at 5:50 PM UTC

Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after the results are published on the resolution source.

Resolution Criteria:

  • Resolves “YES” if at least one 12 seed defeats its corresponding 5 seed in any of the four matchups listed in the resolution details.
  • Resolves “NO” if all four 5 seeds defeat their respective 12 seed opponents.

Resolution Details:

  • The four 12 vs. 5 seed first-round matchups are:
    • East: Northern Iowa (12) vs. St. John's (5);
    • West: High Point (12) vs. Wisconsin (5);
    • South: McNeese (12) vs. Vanderbilt (5);
    • Midwest: Akron (12) vs. Texas Tech (5).
  • If any game is postponed but played within the same scheduled NCAA Tournament window, the result still counts.
  • If any game ends tied at the conclusion of regulation, the market will resolve based on the official result after any overtime period(s), as determined by NCAA rules.

Cancelation (Invalidity) Conditions:

  • Any of the four games is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or held outside of the NCAA Tournament window.
  • Any affected game is declared a no-contest or otherwise lacks an official final result.
  • A team is disqualified, replaced, or reseeded in a manner that materially changes the listed matchups prior to tip-off.
  • Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively.
  • The resolution source is suspended, becomes unreliable, or fails to provide an official outcome.

If the market is canceled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancelation.


Resolution Source
NCAA

Timeline

Market published
Mar 18, 2026, 7:31 pm UTC
Market closed
Mar 19, 2026, 5:50 pm UTC
Resolved
Yes
0/500

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Outcome
Yes