The whole world is watching what Supreme Leader Khamenei will do next. But how much longer will he stay in power?

Market dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date through September 30, at 11:59 PM UTC
• Market Closing: September 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM UTC
• Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached

Resolution criteria:

• Resolves to "Yes" if Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme leader, is removed from power within the market period.
• Resolves to “No” if he stays in power throughout the entire market period.

Resolution

• The market will be resolved primarily based on reports from Reuters and Associated Press may be used as supplementary resolution sources if necessary.
• Any reports or announcements indicating an intention or willingness to remove Ali Khamenei from power made during the market period, will not be considered sufficient to resolve the market as “Yes.” Only an effective removal will count.

Resolution details:

• Khamenei will be considered removed from power if he steps down, is arrested or detained, is officially replaced, or is otherwise unable to perform the duties of the Supreme Leader of Iran.

Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:

This market will be canceled/voided if:

• The resolution sources are unavailable or compromised
• Extraordinary circumstances prevent reliable determination of the outcome

In the event of cancelation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancelation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.