Market Dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date until March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Market Close: March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Resolution Time: The market will resolve after the Market Close or earlier if an outcome is reached.

Resolution Criteria:

• This market resolves to “Yes” if either Israel or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the other country’s ground territory, or any official embassy or consulate belonging to the other country, before the Market’s Resolution Time.
• A qualifying strike must involve:
  • Aerial bombs, drones, cruise missiles, or ballistic missiles, launched by military forces or intelligence units, that impact the opposing party’s soil or an official diplomatic facility.
• Examples that would trigger a Yes:
  • An Israeli missile striking an Iranian weapons depot on Iranian soil.
  • An Iranian drone hitting an Israeli air base.
  • A drone or missile impacting an Israeli or Iranian embassy or consulate in a third country.
• The market resolves to “No” if none of the qualifying events occur during the Market Period.

Resolution Details:

• Missiles or drones that are intercepted — meaning they do not impact the opposing side’s ground territory or diplomatic facility — do not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
• Surface-to-air missile launches do not count as strikes, regardless of location or purpose.
• Cyberattacks, naval incidents, ground skirmishes, proxy militia actions, or unclaimed attacks do not qualify.

Resolution Sources:

• Confirmation must come from official government acknowledgment (Israel or Iran).
• The market will be resolved based on reports from the Iranian or Israeli governments official communication channels, or by confirmation from Reuters, Associated Press, The Guardian, Al Jazeera English and the BBC.

Cancellation Conditions:

• All official or credible resolution sources become unavailable, unreliable, or cease publishing verifiable information.
• Conflicting or inconclusive information prevents determining whether a qualifying strike occurred.
• Any circumstance makes it impossible to confirm or rule out a qualifying event.

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.