Exactly two FED rate changes in 2025? thumbnail

Exactly two FED rate changes in 2025?

$113K
Dec 30, 2025
NO 100% chance
YES0.0%
NO100.0%

Rules

Market Dates:

  • Observation Period: From the publication date through December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET
  • Market Close: December 29, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET
  • Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after the Observation Period has ended, or earlier if three rate cuts have occurred

Resolution Criteria:

  • Resolves to “Yes” if the FED changes its interest rates exactly twice during the Observation Period
  • Resolves to “No” if the FED doesn't change its interest rates at all, if it changes them one time, three times or more than three times during the Observation Period

Resolution Details:

  • This market will resolve based on the official FOMC’s statements throughout the Observation Period
  • Emergency rate lowering or hiking will also be counted towards resolution as a rate change

Cancelation (Invalidity) Conditions

This market will be canceled/invalid if:

  • The resolution source is suspended, becomes unreliable or experiences significant disruptions during the Observation Period
  • Any circumstance prevents reliable tracking during the Observation Period

In the event of cancelation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancelation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.


Resolution Source
Federal Reserve

Timeline

Market published
Aug 31, 2025, 10:09 pm UTC
Market closed
Dec 30, 2025, 4:59 am UTC
Resolved
NO
0/500

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Outcome
NO