Market Context:

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, through which a significant share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas is transported. It is currently a major focus of global attention due to its central role in the ongoing conflicts, which has disrupted shipping, reduced transit traffic, and affected global energy markets.

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date through June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Market Close: June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
• Resolution Deadline: Once the resolution source has published the data for June 30, 2026.

Resolution Criteria:

• This market resolves to “Yes” for the outcome range containing the reported 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz on June 30, 2026, as published by IMF PortWatch.
• All other outcomes resolve to “No”.
• If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher-range bracket.

Resolution Details:

• IMF Portwatch reports of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz will be used for resolution, specifically:
  • 7-day Moving Average.
  • Data for June 30, 2026
• Subsequent revisions of the resolution sources data after the market has been resolved will not be considered.
• Ships not reported by the resolution source will not be considered.
• If no data for the Resolution Deadline has been published by July 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to June 30, 2026, for which data is available.

Cancellation Conditions:

• The resolution source is unavailable or compromised.
• Extraordinary circumstances prevent reliable determination of the outcome.

In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.